Ripples move through standing water.

Climate change in the Hudson Valley

Climate projections for the Hudson Valley

How has the climate changed in our region?

Here in New York State, we are experiencing changes faster than the national and global average**

As solar radiation warms the Earth the planet begins to radiate heat. Certain gases, called greenhouse gases (GHGs), trap some of this heat in the lower atmosphere. Human activities that release GHGs, like burning fossil fuels, are elevating the concentrations of these and warming the planet. This global warming is affecting climate nationally and around the world.

What does the future hold?

Hudson Valley communities can plan for the new normal: more frequent and intense flooding, heat and drought

A chart showing the climate hazards, or trends in our climate, and the climate risks, or the impact to humans.
Climate hazards, or trends in our climate, include: increasing temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and rising sea level. Climate risks, or the impacts to humans, include: heat waves, short-term drought, and flooding.

Climate projections for the Hudson Valley region

New York's climate is changing faster than national and global averagesThe projections include air temperature, precipitation, heat wave, sea level rise and flood projections from now through year 2100, in the Hudson River region. The report delineates climate projections by region. These projections cover the two Hudson Valley regions: Region 2 (west of the Hudson River) and Region 5 (east of the Hudson River and the Mohawk River region). Region 2 covers Delaware, Greene, Orange, Schoharie, Sullivan, Rockland, and Ulster counties, and Region 5 covers Albany, Columbia, Dutchess, Fulton, Herkimer, Madison, Montgomery, Oneida, Putnam, Rensselaer, Saratoga, Schenectady, Washington, and Westchester counties.

Example map of New York State with zoomed in portion on region two and five in the Hudson Valley.
Air temperature projections for region 2
Projection componentBaseline (1971-2000)2020s2050s2080s2100
Annual average air temperature48˚F52.2 - 53.1˚F54.2 - 56.1˚F55.4 - 59.6˚F56.2 - 61.2˚F
Increase in annual average- 2.2 - 3.1˚F4.2 - 6.1˚F5.4 - 9.6˚F6.2 - 11.2˚F

 

Air temperature projections for region 5
Projection componentBaseline (1971-2000)2020s2050s2080s2100
Annual average air temperature50˚F52.3 - 53.2˚F54.5 - 56.2˚F55.6 - 59.7˚F56.1 - 61.4˚F
Increase in annual average- 2.3 - 3.2˚F4.5 - 6.2˚F5.6 - 9.7˚F6.1 - 11.4˚F

 

 

Precipitations projections for region 2
Projection componentBaseline (1971-2000)2020s2050s2080s2100
Total annual precipitation48"48.5" - 52"49.5" - 53.5"51" - 54.5"48.5" - 56.5"
% Increase in annual precipitation-1 - 8%3 - 11%6 - 14%1 - 18%
# Days with precipitation > 1"1212 - 1313 - 1413 - 15*
# Days with precipitation > 2"222 - 32 - 3*

 

 

Precipitations projections for region 5
Projection componentBaseline (1971-2000)2020s2050s2080s2100
Total annual precipitation51"52" - 54.5"53" - 57"53.5" - 58.5"53.5" to 61.5"
% Increase in annual precipitation-2 - 7%4 - 12%5 - 15%5 - 21%
# Days with precipitation > 1"1014 - 1514 - 1615 - 17*
# Days with precipitation > 2"13 - 444 - 5*

 

 

Heat wave projections for region 2
Projection componentBaseline (1971-2000)2020s2050s2080s2100
# Days per year above 90˚F1219 - 2531 - 4738 - 77*
# Days per year above 95˚F22 - 55 - 127 - 28*
# Heat waves per year234 - 65 - 9*
Average # days of each heat wave455 - 65 - 7*
# Days per year ≤ 32˚F138108 - 11686 - 10065 - 89*

 

 

Heat wave projections for region 5
Projection componentBaseline (1971-2000)2020s2050s2080s2100
# Days per year above 90˚F1026 - 3139 - 5244 - 76*
# Days per year above 95˚F12 - 43 - 106 - 25*
# Heat waves per year13 - 45 - 76 - 9*
Average # days of each heat wave455 - 65 - 7*
# Days per year ≤ 32˚F155127 - 136104 - 11984 - 109*

 

 

Sea level rise projections for the Hudson
Projection componentBaseline (1971-2000)2020s2050s2080s2100
Mid-Hudson region-1 - 9"5 - 27"10 - 54"11 - 71"
NYC/Lower Hudson region-2 - 10"8 - 30"13 - 58"15 - 75"

 

 

Flood projections for coastal New York
Projection componentBaseline (1971-2000)2020s2050s2080s2100
Increase in probability of 100-year flood0%20 - 50%70 - 190%140 - 610%*
Flood height of 100-year flood15'15.3 - 15.7'15.9 - 16.8'16.5 - 18.3'*

 

*Projections not available at this time

**National Climate Assessment Hayhoe et al., 2018; IPCC, 2014

Please note that the federally-designated “100-year” or 1% floodplain is the area that statistically has a 1% chance of flooding each year, based on historical data. Compounded over a 30-year period, this storm has over a 25%, or one in four chance of happening, so using the term “100-year” storm is misleading and gives a false sense of security.

The projections are taken from Responding to Climate Change in New York State CimAID Report written in 2011 and updated in 2014.  New York State officially adopted sea-level rise projections in 2017 for consideration in future planning, permitting and funding programs. You can download a PDF version of these projections and our Climate Summary for Communities to learn more about climate hazards, risks and opportunities Hudson Valley municipalities face.