Mario Herrero

Peer-reviewed Journal Articles

• Kebede, Endalkachew Abebe, Hanan Abou Ali, Tyler Clavelle, Halley E. Froehlich, Jessica A. Gephart, Sarah Hartman, Mario Herrero, et al. “Assessing and Addressing the Global State of Food Production Data Scarcity.” Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 5, no. 4 (February 20, 2024): 295–311. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-024-00516-2. 
• Thornton, Philip, Daniel Mason D’Croz, Cody Kugler, Roseline Remans, Heather Zornetzer, and Mario Herrero. “Enabling Food System Innovation: Accelerators for Change.” Global Food Security 40 (March 2024): 100738. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2023.100738. 

Peer-reviewed Journal Articles

• United Nations Environment Programme. Frontiers 2023. What’s Cooking? An Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Selected Novel Alternatives to Conventional Animal Products. United Nations Environment Programme, 2023. https://doi.org/10.59117/20.500.11822/44236. 
• Schrobback, Peggy, Gabriel Dennis, Yin Li, Dianne Mayberry, Alexandra Shaw, Theodore Knight-Jones, Thomas Lloyd Marsh, Mario Herrero et al. “Approximating the Global Economic (Market) Value of Farmed Animals.” Global Food Security 39 (December 2023): 100722. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2023.100722. 
• Zurek, Monika, Jonathan Wirths, Aniek Hebinck, Scarlett Crawford, Preetmoninder Lidder, P. V. Vara Prasad, Pablo Tittonell, Mario Herrero, and Julia Compton. “Principles for Guiding Research and Innovation toward Sustainable and Equitable Agrifood Systems.” Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems 7 (September 14, 2023): 1059063. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2023.1059063. 
• “EAT–Lancet Commission 2.0: Securing a Just Transition to Healthy, Environmentally Sustainable Diets for All.” The Lancet 402, no. 10399 (July 2023): 352–54. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(23)01290-4. 
• Van Zanten, H. H. E., W. Simon, B. Van Selm, J. Wacker, T. I. Maindl, A. Frehner, R. Hijbeek, M. K. Van Ittersum, and M. Herrero. “Circularity in Europe Strengthens the Sustainability of the Global Food System.” Nature Food 4, no. 4 (April 17, 2023): 320–30. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-023-00734-9.
• C. Castonguay, Adam, Stephen Polasky, Matthew H. Holden, Mario Herrero, Jinfeng Chang, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Cecile Godde, et al. “MOO-GAPS: A Multi-Objective Optimization Model for Global Animal Production and Sustainability.” Journal of Cleaner Production 396 (April 2023): 136440. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.136440.
• Hammond, James, Tim Pagella, Mark E. Caulfield, Simon Fraval, Nils Teufel, Jannike Wichern, Esther Kihoro, Mario Herrero, Todd S. Rosenstock, and Mark T. Van Wijk. “Poverty Dynamics and the Determining Factors among East African Smallholder Farmers.” Agricultural Systems 206 (March 2023): 103611. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2023.103611.
• Beal, Ty, Christopher D. Gardner, Mario Herrero, Lora L. Iannotti, Lutz Merbold, Stella Nordhagen, and Anne Mottet. “Friend or Foe? The Role of Animal-Source Foods in Healthy and Environmentally Sustainable Diets.” The Journal of Nutrition 153, no. 2 (February 2023): 409–25. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tjnut.2022.10.016.
• Castonguay, Adam C., Stephen Polasky, Matthew H. Holden, Mario Herrero, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Cecile Godde, Jinfeng Chang, et al. “Navigating Sustainability Trade-Offs in Global Beef Production.” Nature Sustainability 6, no. 3 (January 2, 2023): 284–94. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-022-01017-0.

Peer-reviewed Journal Articles

• James-Martin, Genevieve, Danielle L Baird, Gilly A Hendrie, Jessica Bogard, Kim Anastasiou, Paige G Brooker, Bonnie Wiggins, Gemma Williams, Mario Herrero, Mark Lawrence, Amanda J Lee, Malcolm D Riley. “Environmental Sustainability in National Food-Based Dietary Guidelines: A Global Review.” The Lancet Planetary Health 6, no. 12 (December 2022): e977–86. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00246-7.
• Ramya Ambikapathi, Kate R. Schneider, Benjamin Davis, Mario Herrero, Paul Winters, Jessica C. Fanzo (2022). Global food systems transitions have enabled affordable diets but had less favourable outcomes for nutrition, environmental health, inclusion and equity. Nat Food 3, 764–779. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-022-00588-7
• Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Anne Barnhill, Justin Bernstein, Jessica Bogard, Gabriel Dennis, Peter Dixon, Jessica Fanzo, Mario Herrero, Rebecca McLaren, Jeda Palmer, Travis Rieder, Maureen Rimmer, Ruth Faden (2022). Ethical and economic implications of the adoption of novel plant-based beef substitutes in the USA: a general equilibrium modelling study. The Lancet Planetary Health. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00169-3
• Anita Frehner, Renée P M Cardinaals, Imke J M de Boer, Adrian Muller, Christian Schader, Benjamin van Selm, Ollie van Hal, Giulia Pestoni, Sabine Rohrmann, Mario Herrero, Hannah H E van Zanten (2022). The Lancet Planetary Health. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00119-X
• Katharina Waha, Francesco Accatino, Cecile Godde, Cyrille Rigolot, Jessica Bogard, Joao Pedro Domingues, Elisabetta Gotor, Mario Herrero, Guillaume Martin, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Francesco Tacconi, Mark van Wijk (2022). The benefits and trade-offs of agricultural diversity for food security in low- and middle-income countries: A review of existing knowledge and evidence. Global Food Security. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2022.100645
• James Hammond, Kim Siegal, Daniel Milner, Emmanuel Elimu, Taylor Vail, Paul Cathala, Arsene Gatera, Azfar Karim, Ja-Eun Lee, Sabine Douxchamps, Mai Thanh Tu, Emily Ouma, Ben Lukuyu, Pius Lutakome, Sonja Leitner, Ibrahim Wanyama, Trang Pham Thi, Phan Thi Hong Phuc, Mario Herrero, Mark van Wijk (2022). Perceived effects of COVID-19 restrictions on smallholder farmers: Evidence from seven lower- and middle-income countries. Agricultural Systems. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2022.103367
• Johannes Piipponen, Mika Jalava, Jan de Leeuw, Afag Rizayeva, Cecile Godde, Gabriel Cramer, Mario Herrero, Matti Kummu (2022). Global trends in grassland carrying capacity and relative stocking density of livestock. Global Change Biology. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16174
• Philip Thornton, Gerald Nelson, Dianne Mayberry, Mario Herrero (2022). Impacts of heat stress on global cattle production during the 21st century: a modelling study. The Lancet Planetary Health. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00002-X
• Neil L. Andrew, Edward H. Allison, Tom Brewer, John Connell, Hampus Eriksson, Jacob G. Eurich, Anna Farmery, Jessica A. Gephart, Christopher D. Golden, Mario Herrero, Karen Mapusua, Katherine L. Seto, Michael K. Sharp, Phillip Thornton, Anne Marie Thow, Jillian Tutuo (2022). Continuity and change in the contemporary Pacific food system. Global Food Security. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2021.100608
• Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier, Jean Burgess, Maurizio Corbetta, Kate Crawford, Esther Duflo, Laurel Fogarty, Alison Gopnik, Sari Hanafi, Mario Herrero, Ying-yi Hong, Yasuko Kameyama, Tatia M. C. Lee, Gabriel M. Leung, Daniel S. Nagin, Anna C. Nobre, Merete Nordentoft, Aysu Okbay, Andrew Perfors, Laura M. Rival, Cassidy R. Sugimoto, Bertil Tungodden & Claudia Wagner. The future of human behaviour research. Nature Human Behavior. Nat Hum Behav 6, 15–24 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01275-6 
• Benjamin van Selm, Anita Frehner, Imke J. M. de Boer, Ollie van Hal, Renske Hijbeek, Martin K. van Ittersum, Elise F. Talsma, Jan Peter Lesschen, Chantal M. J. Hendriks, Mario Herrero & Hannah H. E. van Zanten. Circularity in animal production requires a change in the EAT-Lancet diet in Europe. Nat Food 3, 66–73 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00425-3

Book Chapters, Reports, Conference Papers and Assorted Publications

• Christopher B. Barrett, Tim Benton, Jessica Fanzo, Mario Herrero, Rebecca J. Nelson, Elizabeth Bageant, Edward Buckler, Karen Cooper, Isabella Culotta, Shenggen Fan, Rikin Gandhi, Steven James, Mark Kahn, Laté Lawson-Lartego, Jiali Liu, Quinn Marshall, Daniel Mason-D'Croz, Alexander Mathys, Cynthia Mathys, Veronica Mazariegos-Anastassiou, Alesha Miller, Kamakhya Misra, Andrew Mude, Jianbo Shen, Lindiwe Majele Sibanda, Claire Song, Roy Steiner, Philip Thornton, Stephen Wood (2022). Socio-Technical Innovation Bundles for Agri-Food Systems Transformation. Springer Nature. https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-88802-2

Peer-reviewed Journal Articles

• Hao Zhao, Jinfeng Chang, Petr Havlík, Michiel van Dijk, Hugo Valin, Charlotte Janssens, Lin Ma, Zhaohai Bai, Mario Herrero, Pete Smith & Michael Obersteiner. China’s future food demand and its implications for trade and environment. Nat Sustain 4, 1042–1051 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-021-00784-6
• Prof Mario Herrero, Philip K Thornton, Daniel Mason-D'Croz, Jeda Palmer, Benjamin L Bodirsky, Prajal Pradhan, Prof Christopher B Barrett, Prof Tim G Benton, Andrew Hall, Ilje Pikaar, Jessica R Bogard, Graham D Bonnett, Prof Brett A Bryan, Bruce M Campbell, Prof Svend Christensen, Michael Clark, Prof Jessica Fanzo, Cecile M Godde, Andy Jarvis, Ana Maria Loboguerrero, Prof Alexander Mathys, C Lynne McIntyre, Prof Rosamond L Naylor, Prof Rebecca Nelson, Michael Obersteiner, Alejandro Parodi, Prof Alexander Popp, Katie Ricketts, Prof Pete Smith, Hugo Valin, Sonja J Vermeulen, Joost Vervoort, Mark van Wijk, Hannah HE van Zanten, Paul C West, Stephen A Wood, Prof Johan Rockström (2022). Articulating the effect of food systems innovation on the Sustainable Development Goals. The Lancet Planetary Health. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30277-1
• Godde, C.M., Mason-D’Croz, D., Mayberry, D., Thornton, P.K., Herrero, M. (2021) Impacts of climate change on the livestock food supply chain; a review of the evidence. Global Food Security, 28, 100488. Doi: 10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100488 
• Chang, J., Ciais, P., Gasser, T., Smith, P., Herrero, M., Havlík, P., Obersteiner, M., Guenet, B., Goll, D., Li, W., Naipal, V., Peng, S., Qiu, C., Tian, H., Viovy, N., Yue, C., Zhu, D. (2021) Climate warming from managed grasslands cancels the cooling effect of carbon sinks in sparsely grazed and natural grasslands. Nature Communications DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-20406-7

Peer-reviewed Journal Articles

•  Clark, M., Macdiarmid, J., Jones, A.D., Ranganathan, J., Herrero, M., Fanzo, J. (2020) The Role of Healthy Diets in Environmentally Sustainable Food Systems. Food and Nutrition Bulletin 41(2S), S31-S58. 
• Heinke, J., Lannerstad, M., Gerten, D., Havlík, P., Herrero, M., Hoff, H., Müller, C (2020) Water use in global livestock production – opportunities and constraints for increasing water productivity. Water Resources Research 56(12), e2019WR026995. DOI: 10.1029/2019WR026995 
• Herrero, M., Thornton, P.K., Mason-D'Croz, D., Palmer, J., Bodirsky, B.L., Pradhan, P., Barrett, C.B., Benton, T.G., Hall, A., Pikaar, I., Bogard, J.R., Bonnett, G.D., Bryan, B.A., Campbell, B.M., Christensen, S., Clark, M., Fanzo, J., Godde, C.M., Jarvis, A., Loboguerrero, A.M., Mathys, A., McIntyre, C.L., Naylor, R.L., Nelson, R., Obersteiner, M., Parodi, A., Popp, A., Ricketts, K., Smith, P., Valin, H., Vermeulen, S.J., Vervoort, J.,  van Wijk, M., van Zanten, H.H.E., West, P.C., Wood, S.A., Rockström, J.(2020) Articulating the impact of food systems innovation on the Sustainable Development Goals. The Lancet Planetary Health 5(1), e50-e62. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30277-1 
• Barrett, C.B., Benton, T.G., Cooper, K.A. Fanzo, J., Gandhi, R., Herrero, M., James, S., Kahn, M., Mason-D’Croz, D., Mathys, A., Nelson, R.J., Shen, J., Thornton, P., Bageant, E., Fan, S., Mude, A.G., Sibanda, L.W. & Wood, S. (2020) Comment: Bundling innovations to transform agri-food systems. Nature Sustainability 3, 974–976. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-020-00661-8 
• Notenbaert, A., Groot, J.C.J., Herrero, M., Birnholz, C., Paul, B., Fraval, S., Lannerstad, M., McFadzean, J., Dungait, J., Morris, J., Ran, Y., Barron, J., Tittonell, P. (2020) Towards environmentally sound intensification pathways for dairy development in the Tanga region of Tanzania. Regional Environmental Change. 20, 138. 
• Herrero, M., Mason-D’Croz, D., Palmer, J., Benton, T.G., Bodirsky, B.L., Bogard, J., Hall, A., Lee, B., Nyborg, K., Pradhan, P., Bonnett, G., Bryan, B.A., Campbell, B.M., Christensen, S., Clark, M., Cook, M., de Boer, I.J.M, Downs, C., Dizyee, K., Folberth, C., Godde, C., Gerber, J., Grundy, M., Havlik, P., Jarvis, A., King, R., Loboguerrero, A.M. Lopes, M.A., McIntyre, C.L. Naylor, R., Navarro, J., Obersteiner, M., Parodi, A., Peoples, M.B., Pikaar, I., Popp, A., Rockström, J., Robertson, M., Smith, P., Stehfest, E., Swain, S.M., Valin, H., van Wijk, M., van Zanten, H.H.E., Vermeulen, S., Vervoort, J., West, P., Thornton, P.K. 2020. Innovation can accelerate the transformation towards a sustainable food system. Nature Food 1, 266-272.
• Herrero, M. and Thornton, P.K. 2020. What can Covid-19 teach us about responding to climate change? The Lancet Planetary Health 4, e174.
• Bene, C., Fanzo, J., Haddad, L., Hawkes, C., Caron, P., Vermeulen, S., Herrero, M. and Oosterveer, P. 2020. The Great Food Transformation: Five priorities to operationalise the EAT-Lancet recommendations. Nature Food 1, 457-459.
• Cacho, O., Moss, J., Thornton, P.K., Herrero, M., Henderson, B., Bodirsky, B., Humpenoder, F., Popp, A., Lipper, L. 2020. The value of climate-resilient seeds for smallholder adaptation in sub-Saharan Africa. Climatic Change https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02817-z
• Damerau, K., Davis, KL, Godde, C., Herrero, M., Springmann, M., Bhupathiraju, SN., Myers, S., Willett, W. 2020. India has natural resource capacity to achieve nutrition security, reduce health risks and improve environmental sustainability. Nature Food 1, 631-639.
• Fanzo, J., Covic, N., Dobermann, A., Henson, S., Herrero, M., Pingali, P., Staal, S. 2020. A research vision for food systems in the 2020s: defying the status quo. Global Food Security 26., 100327
• Leclère, D., Obersteiner, M., Barrett, M., Butchart, S. H. M., Chaudhary, A., De Palma, A., DeClerck, F. A. J., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J. C., Durauer, M., Freeman, R., Harfoot, M., Hasegawa, T., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J. P., Hill, S. L. L., Humpenöder, F., Jennings, N., Krisztin, T., Mace, G. M., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A. M., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Zeist, W. J., Visconti, P., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Bunting, G., Burgess, N. D., Cornell, S.E., Di Fulvio, F., Ferrier, S., Fritz, S., Fujimori , S., 8 Grooten, M., Harwood, T., Havlík, P., Herrero, M., Hoskins, A. J., Kram, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., van Vuuren, D. P., Ware, C., Watson, J. E. M., Wu, W. & Young, L. 2020. Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy.  Nature 585, 551-556. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2705-y
• Hidalgo, D., Witten, I., Nunn, PD, Burkhart, S, Bogard, J, Beazley, H, and Herrero M. 2020. Sustaining healthy diets in times of change. Linking climate hazards, food systems and nutrition security in rural communities of the Fiji Islands. Regional Environmental Change 20, 73
• Loboguerrero, AM, Thornton, PK, Wadsworth, J., Campbell, B., Herrero, M., Mason-D’Croz, D., Dinesh, D., Huyer, S., Jarvis, A., Millan, A., Wollenberg, E., Zebiak, S. 2020. Actions to reconfigure food systems. Global Food Security, 26, 100432.
• Local Burden of Disease Child Growth Failure Collaborators 2020. Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017. Nature Medicine 26, 750-755.
• Mason-D’Croz, D., Bogard, J., Herrero, M., Sulser, T., Wiebe, K., Willenbockel, D. and Godfray C. 2020. Modelling the global economic consequences of a major African swine fever outbreak in China. Nature Food 1, 221-228.
• Di Marco, M., Baker, M., Daszak, P., De Barro, P., Eskew, E., Godde, C., Harwood, T., Herrero, M., Hoskins, A., Johnson, E., Navarro Garcia, J., Paini, D., Pirzl, R., Stafford Smith, M., Zambrana-Torrelio, C., Ferrier, S. (2020) Sustainable development must account for pandemic risk. PNAS. 117, 3888-3892.
• Godde, C.M., de Boer, I.J.M., zu Ermgassen, E., Herrero, M., van Middelaar, C.E., Muller, A., Röös, E., Schader, C., Smith, P., van Zanten, H.H.E, Garnett, T. 2020 Carbon sequestration in grazing systems: managing expectations. Climatic Change 1-7. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02673-x
• Godde, C.M., Boone, R., Ash, A., Waha, K., Sloat, L., Thornton, P.K. and Herrero, M. 2020. Global rangeland production systems and livelihoods at threat under climate change and variability. Environmental Research Letters 15, 044021
• Local Burden of Disease Child Growth Failure Collaborators 2020. Mapping child growth failure across low- and middle- income countries, 2000-2017. Nature 577, 231-234.
• Mehrabi, Z., Gill, M., van Wijk, M., Ramankutty, N., Herrero, M. 2020. Livestock policy for sustainable development. Nature Food 1, 160–165.
• Paul, B., Groot, J., Maass, B.L., Tittonell, P., Herrero, M., Notenbaert, A. 2020. Improved feeding and forages at a crossroads: farming systems approaches for sustainable livestock development in East Africa. Outlook on Agriculture, 1–8
• Rosenzweig, C., Mbow, C., Barioni, L.G., Benton, T.G., Herrero, M., Krishnapillai, M., Liwenga, E., Pradhan, P., Rivera-Ferre, M.G., Sapkota,T., Tubiello, F.N., Xu, Y., Mencos Contreras, E. Portugal Pereira, J. 2020. Climate change responses benefit from a global food system approach Nature Food. 1, 94–97.
• Waha, K., Bondeau, A., Philipp Dietrich, J., Herrero, M., Portmann, F.T., Siebert, S., Thornton, P.K. 2020. Multiple cropping systems of the world and the potential for increasing cropping intensity. Global Environmental Change https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102131

Book Chapters, Reports, Conference Papers and Assorted Publications

• Barrett, Christopher B., Tim Benton, Jessica Fanzo, Mario Herrero, Rebecca J. Nelson, Elizabeth Bageant, Edward Buckler, Karen Cooper, Isabella Culotta, Shenggen Fan, Rikin Gandhi, Steven James, Mark Kahn, Laté Lawson-Lartego, Jiali Liu, Quinn Marshall, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Alexander Mathys, Cynthia Mathys, Veronica Mazariegos-Anastassiou, Alesha (Black) Miller, Kamakhya Misra, Andrew G. Mude, Jianbo Shen, Lindiwe Majele Sibanda, Claire Song, Roy Steiner, Philip Thornton, and Stephen Wood. Socio-technical Innovation Bundles for Agri-food Systems Transformation, Report of the International Expert Panel on Innovations to Build Sustainable, Equitable, Inclusive Food Value Chains. Ithaca, NY, and London: Cornell Atkinson Center for Sustainability and Springer Nature, 2020. 
• Mason-D’Croz, D., P. Dixon, M. Rimmer, G. Dennis, J. Palmer, J. Bogard, and M. Herrero. (2020) Pathways to sustainable beef production and consumption in the United States. Report prepared for Johns Hopkins University as a part of the Global Food Ethics and Policy Program (grant No. 2004123399).
• Herrero, M., Mason-D’Croz, D., McMillan, L., Dennis, G., Palmer, J. (2020) Metrics for decision- making in the livestock sector: summary report. Report for Investment ID 50121 prepared for the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. CSIRO: Brisbane.
• Herrero, M., Waha, K., Hammond, J., Gorman, L., Mason-D'Croz, D., Palmer, J., Tacconi, F., van Wijk, M. (2020) Landscape-based comparisons of large and small farms reveal significant trade-offs between intensification, food security and environmental metrics. 4th International Conference on Global Food Security. 16-20 Jun 2020, Montpellier, France. Oral presentation. [Event delayed]
• Herrero, M., Thornton, P.K., Mason-D'Croz, D., Palmer, J., Benton, T., Bodirsky, B., Bogard, J., Hall, A., Lee, B. (2020) Future technologies and food-systems innovation for accelerating progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals. 4th International Conference on Global Food Security. 16-20 Jun 2020, Montpellier, France. Oral presentation. [Event delayed]
• Godde, C.M., Boone, R.B., Ash, A., Waha, K., Sloat, L., Thornton, P., Herrero, M. (2020) Global rangeland systems at threat under climate change and variability. 4th International Conference on Global Food Security. 16-20 Jun 2020, Montpellier, France. Poster. [Event delayed]
• Waha, K., Accatino, F., Bogard, J., Domingues, J.P., Godde, C., Herrero, M., Martin, M., Mason-D’Croz, D., Remans, R., Rigolot, C., Tacconi, F., van Wijk, M. (2020) The benefits and trade-offs of diversity in farming systems for food production, food security and resilience: a review of existing knowledge, theoretical background and approaches. 4th International Conference on Global Food Security. 16-20 Jun 2020, Montpellier, France. Poster. [Event delayed]
• Castonguay, A .C., Polasky, S., Herrero, M., Bryan, B., Wintle, B., Mason-D’Croz, D., Game, E.T.,  Godde, C., Holden, M., Lee, K., Witt, B., Bal, P., McDonald-Madden, E. (2020) Where’s the beef? a systems model to minimise greenhouse gas emissions from beef production. 4th International Conference on Global Food Security. 16-20 Jun 2020, Montpellier, France. Poster.

Peer-reviewed Journal Articles

• Godde, C.M., Dizyee, K., Ash, A., Thornton, P., Sloat, L., Roura, E., Henderson, B., Herrero, M. 2019. Climate change and variability impacts on grazing herds: Insights from a system dynamics approach for semi‐arid Australian rangelands. Global Change Biology.  10.1111/gcb.14669
• Willett, W., Rockström, J., Loken, B., Springmann, M., Lang, T., Vermeulen, S., Garnett, T., Tilman, D., Wood, A., DeClerck, F., Jonell, M., Clark, M., Gordon, L., Fanzo, J., Hawkes, C., Zurayk, R., Rivera, J.A., De Vries, W., Sibanda, L., Afshin, A., Chaudhary, A., Herrero, M., Agustina, R. Branca, F., Lartey, A., Fan, S., Crona, B., Fox, E., Bignet, V., Troell, M., Lindahl, T., Singh, S., Cornell, S., Reddy, S., Narain, S., Nishtar, S., Murray, C. (2019) Food in the Anthropocene: the EAT–Lancet Commission on healthy diets from sustainable food systems. The Lancet. 393 (10170), 447-492.
• Swinburn, B., Allender, S., Atkins, V.J., Baker, P.I., Bogard, J., Brinsden, H., Calvillo, A., De Schutter, O., Devarajan, R., Ezzati, M., Friel, S., Goenka, S., Hammond, R.A., Hastings, G., Hawkes, C., Herrero, M., Hovmand, P.S., Howden, M., Jaacks, L.M., Kapetanaki, A.B.,  Kasman, M., Kraak, V.I., Kuhnlein, H.V., Kumanyika, S.K., Larijani, B., Lobstein, T., Long, M.W., Matsudo, V.K., Mills, S.D., Morgan, G., Morshed, A.B., Nece, P.M., Pan, A., Patterson, D.W., Sacks, G., Shekar, M., Simmons, G.L., Smit, W., Tootee, A., Vandevijvere, S., Waterlander, W.E., Wolfenden, L., Dietz, W.H. (2019) The Global Syndemic of Obesity, Undernutrition, and Climate Change: The Lancet Commission report. The Lancet. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32822-8
• Damerau, K., Waha, K., Herrero, M. (2019) The impact of nutrient-rich food choices on agricultural water-use efficiency. Nature Sustainability. 2, 233–241.
• Fraval, S., Hammond, J., Bogard, J.R., Ng’endo, M., van Etten, J., Herrero, M., Oosting, S.J., de Boer, I.J., Lannerstad, M., Teufel, N., Lamanna, C., Rosenstock, T., Pagella, T., Vanlauwe, B., Dontsop-Nguezet, P.M., Baines, D., Carpena, P., Njingulula, P., Okafor, C., Wichern, J., Ayantunde, A., Bosire, C., Chesterman, S., Kihoro, E., Rao, J., Skirrow, T., Steinke, J., Stirling, C.M., Yameogo, V., Van Wijk, M. (2019) Food access deficiencies in sub-Saharan Africa: prevalence and implications for agricultural interventions. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems. DOI: 10.3389/fsufs.2019.00104.
• Fraval, S., Hammond, J., Wichern, J., Oosting, S.J., de Boer, I.J.M., Teufel, N., Lannerstad, M., Waha, K., Pagella, T., Rosenstock, T.S., Giller, K.E., Herrero, M., Harris, D., van Wijk, M.T. (2019) Making the most of imperfect data: a critical evaluation of standard information collected in cross-sectional farm household surveys. Experimental Agriculture 55 (2), 230–250.
• Fitton, N., van Meijl, H., Bajzelj, B., K. Calvin, K., Doelman, J., West, P., Smith, P., Krisztin, T., Havlik, P., Powell, T., Arnell, N., Herrero, M., Hasegawa, T., Stehfest, E., Calvin, K., Gerber, J., Alexander, P., Sands, R. (2019) The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity. Global Environmental Change 58, 101944. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101944
• Mason-D'Croz, D., Bogard, J.R., Sulser, T.B., Cenacchi, N., Dunston, S., Herrero, M., Wiebe, K. (2019) Gaps between fruit and vegetable production, demand, and recommended consumption at global and national levels: an integrated modelling study. The Lancet Planetary Health, 3(7), e318-e329.

Book Chapters, Reports, Conference Papers and Assorted Publications

• Herrero, M., Palmer, J., Mason-D’Croz, D. (2019) Finding the sweetspots: Trade-offs between productivity increases, structural change and the mitigation potential of dairy systems in Ethiopia. Final report for Investment ID 50121 prepared for the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. CSIRO: Brisbane.
• Herrero, M., Mason-D’Croz, D., McMillan, L., Palmer, J. (2019) Metric framework for measurement and monitoring livestock sector outcomes. Report for Investment ID 50121 prepared for the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. CSIRO: Brisbane.
• Herrero, M., Mason-D’Croz, D., McMillan, L., Dennis, G., Palmer, J. (2019) Investment decision- making in the livestock sector: country typology. Report for Investment ID 50121 prepared for the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. CSIRO: Brisbane.
• Herrero, M., Palmer, J., Mason-D’Croz, D., McMillan, L. (2019) Investment decision making in the livestock sector: A literature review. Report for Investment ID 50121 prepared for the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. CSIRO: Brisbane.
• McMillan, L., Herrero, M., Palmer, J., Mason-D’Croz, D. (2019) Investment decision making in the livestock sector Stakeholder engagement regarding decision making processes, including actors maps. Report for Investment ID 50121 prepared for the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. CSIRO: Brisbane.
• Mason-D’Croz, D., Palmer, J., Herrero, M., McMillan, L. (2019) Investment decision making in the livestock sector: Key decisions and metrics. Report for Investment ID 50121 prepared for the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. CSIRO: Brisbane.
• Mason-D’Croz, D., J. Palmer, G. Dennis, I. Parisi, and M. Herrero. (2019) Smallholder Farmers in the Asia-Pacific: Past Trends and Possible Future to 2030. Report prepared for Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.
• Herrero, M., Thornton, P., Mason-D'Croz, D., Palmer, J. (2019) Transforming Food Systems Under a Changing Climate: Future technologies and food systems innovation for accelerating progress towards the SDGs - key messages. CCAFS Brief. CGIAR Programme on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security.
• Mason-D'Croz D, Herrero M, Peou R, Thornton P. (2019) Workshop on Transformative Technologies in Agriculture: Notes to participants. CCAFS Report. Wageningen, the Netherlands: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS).
• Clark, M., Macdiarmid, J., Jones, A.D., Ranganathan, J., Herrero, M., Fanzo, J. (2019) “The role of healthy diets in creating environmentally sustainable food systems” in Sustainable healthy diets – Guiding principles. FAO and WHO: Rome.
• Enahoro, D., Herrero, M., Johnson, N (2019) Promising options for improving livestock production and productivity in developing countries. International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) Project Report. Nairobi, Kenya: ILRI.
• Herrero, M., Bogard, J., Mason-D’Croz, D., Palmer, J (2019) Sustainability implications of different food production systems. Nutrition Society of Australia 43 Annual Scientific Meeting. Nutrition: The Epicentre of Health. Newcastle 2-5 December 2019. Invited Keynote Presentation. 
• Herrero, M., Mason-D’Croz, D., Bogard, J., Howden, M (2019) Food Production. In Healthy and Sustainable Food Systems (Lawrence, M., Friel, S.) Taylor and Francis Group.
• Fanzo, J., Herrero, M. (2019) What we eat matters: to change climate crisis, we need to reshape the food system. Opinion article. Published 9 October. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/08/climate-change-food-global-heating-livestock
• Mbow, C., Rosenzweig, C., Barioni, L.G., Benton, T., Herrero, M., Krishnapillai, M.V., Liwenga, E., Pradhan, P., Rivera-Ferre, M.G., Sapkota, T., Tubiello, F., Xu, Y., Amanullah, A., Benkeblia, N., Challinor, A.J., Porter, J.R., Mason-D’Croz, D., Waha, K. et al. (2019) Chapter 5: Food Security In IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/srccl/
• Arneth, A., Barbosa, H., Benton, T., Calvo, E., Connors, S., Davin, E., Denton, F., van Diemen, R., Elbehri, A., Evans, J., Ferrat, M., Haughey, E., Herrero, M., House, J., Howden, M., Hurlbert, M., Jia, G., Krishnaswamy, J., Kurz, W., Lennard, C., Mahmoud, N., Masson-Delmotte, V., Mbow, C., McElwee, P., Mirzabaev, A., Moufouma, W., Nedjraoui, D., Neogi, S., Nkem, J., De Noblet-Ducoudre, N., Olsson, L., Pathak, M., Petzold, J., Pichs-Madruga, R., Poloczanska, E., Popp, A., Pörtner, H-O, Portugal Pereira, J., Pradhan, P., Reisinger, A., Roberts, D., Rosenzweig, C., Rounsevell, R., Shevliakova, E., Shukla, P., Skea, J., Slade, R., Smith, P., Sokona, Y., Sonwa, D., Soussana, J-F, Tubiello, F., Verchot, L., Warner, K., Weyer, N., Wu, J., Yassaa, N., Zhai, P., Zommers, Z. (2019) IPCC Special Report on Climate Change, Desertification, Land Degradation, Sustainable Land Management, Food Security, and Greenhouse gas fluxes in Terrestrial Ecosystems: Summary for Policymakers. IPCC. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/srccl/
• Waha K, Dietrich JP, Bondeau A, Siebert S, Portmann FT, Thornton P, Herrero M (2019): Multiple cropping systems of the world and the potential for increasing cropping intensity. Global Land Program Open Science Meeting. 23-26 April 2019. Bern, Switzerland.
• Godde, C., Boone, R., Ash, A., Waha, K., Sloat, L., Thornton, P., Herrero, M. (2019) Global rangelands at threat under climate change. Poster for: Global Land Program Open Science Meeting. 23-26 April 2019. Bern, Switzerland.
• Thornton, P., Herrero, M., Boone, R. B. (2019) Altered grazing systems: Pastoralism to conventional agriculture. In Grasslands and Climate Change (eds. David J. Gibson and Jonathan A. Newman) British Ecological Society & Cambridge University Press.
• Dalin, C. Tuninetti, C., Carlson, K., Chang, J., Gerber, J., Herrero, M., Kastner, T., Smith, P., Quinn, R. (2019) Variability, drivers and interactions of key environmental stressors from food production worldwide. EGU General Assembly 2019. Vol. 21, EGU2019-5574-1.

Peer-reviewed Journal Articles

• Parodi, A., Leip, A., de Boer, I.J.M., Slegers, P, Ziegler, F., Temme, E.H.M., Herrero, M., Tuomisto, H., Valin, H., van Middelaar, C., van Loon, J., and van Zanten, H.H.E. (2018) Future foods: towards a sustainable and healthy diet for a growing population. Nature Sustainability, 1, 782–789.
• Nelson, G., Bogard, J., Lividini, K., Arsenault, J., Riley, M., Sulser, T., Mason-D’Croz, D., Power, B., Gustafson, D., Herrero, M., Wiebe, K., Cooper, K., Remans, R., Rosegrant, M. (2018) Income growth and climate change effects on global nutrition security to mid-century. Nature Sustainability 1,773–781.
• Deppermann, A., Havlík, P., Valin, H., Boere, E., Herrero, M., Vervoort, J., Mathijs, E. (2018) The market impacts of shortening feed supply chains in Europe. Food Security 10(6), 1401–1410.
• Karanja Ng’ang’a, S., Ritho, C., Herrero, M., Fraval, S. (2018) Household-oriented benefits largely outweigh commercial benefits derived from cattle in Mabalane District, Mozambique. The Rangelands Journal. DOI: 10.1071/RJ17115
• Sandström, V., Valin, H., Krisztin, T., Havlik, P., Herrero, M., Kastner, T. (2018) The role of trade in the greenhouse gas footprints of EU diets. Global Food Security 19, 48-55.
• Henderson, B., Cacho, O., Thornton, P., van Wijk, M., Herrero, M. (2018) The economic potential of residue management and fertilizer use to address climate change impacts on mixed smallholder farmers in Burkina Faso. Agricultural Systems 167, 195-205.
• Springmann, M, M. Clark, D. Mason-D’Croz, K. Wiebe, B.L. Bodirsky, L. Lassaletta, W. de Vries, S.J. Vermeulen, M. Herrero, K.M. Carlson, M. Jonell, M. Troell, F. DeClerck, L.J. Gordon, R, Zurayk, P. Scarborough, M. Rayner, B. Loken, J. Fanzo, H.C.J. Godfray, G.D. Tilman, J. Rockström, and W. Willett. (2018) Options for keeping the food system within environmental limits. Nature. DOI: 1038/s41586-018-0594-0
• Thornton, P.K., Whitbread, A., Baedeker, T., Cairns, J., Claessens, L., Baethgen, W., Bunn, C., Friedmann, M., Giller, K.E., Herrero, M., Howden, M., Kilcline, K., Nangia, V., Ramirez-Villegas, J., Kumar, S., West, P.C., Keating, B. (2018) A framework for priority-setting in climate smart agriculture research. Agricultural Systems 167, 161-175.
• Balmford, A., Amano, T., Bartlett, H., Chadwick, D., Collins, A., Edwards, D., Field, R., Garnsworthy, P., Green, R., Smith, P., Waters, H., Whitmore, A., Broom, D., Chara, J., Finch, T., Garnett, E., Gathorne-Hardy, A., Hernandez-Medrano, J., Herrero, M., Hua, F., Latawiec, A., Misselbrook, T., Phalan, B., Simmons, B., Takahashi, T., Vause, J., zu Ermgassen, E., Eisner, R. (2018) The environmental costs and benefits of high-yield farming. Nature Sustainability 1, 477–485.
• Pikaar, I., de Vrieze, J., Rabaey, K., Herrero, M., Smith, P., Verstraete, W. (2018) Carbon emission avoidance and capture by producing in-reactor microbial biomass based food, feed and slow release fertilizer: potentials and limitations. Science of the Total Environment 644, 1525–1530.
• Van Zanten, H. H. E., Herrero, M., Van Hal, O., Röös, E., Muller, A., Garnett, T. Gerber, P. J.,  Schader, C., De Boer, I. J. M. (2018) Defining a land boundary for sustainable livestock consumption. Global Change Biology. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14321.
• Mayberry, D., Ash, A., Prestwidge, D., Herrero, M. (2018) Closing yield gaps in smallholder goat production systems in Ethiopia and India. Livestock Science 214, 238-244. DOI: 10.1016/j.livsci.2018.06.015
• Pikaar, I., Matassa, S., Bodirsky, B. L. Rabaey, K., Humpenöder, F., Weindl, I., Bruschi, M., Boon, N., van Zanten, H., Yuan, Z., Herrero, M., Verstraete, W., Popp, A. (2018) Decoupling livestock from land use through industrial feed production pathways. Environmental Science & Technology. 52(13): 7351–7359. DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.8b00216.
• Fraval, S. Hammond, J., Lannerstad, M., Oosting, S. J., Sayula, G., Teufel, N., Silvestri, S., Poole, J. E., Herrero, M., van Wijk, M. T. (2018) Livelihoods and food security in an urban linked, high potential region of Tanzania: Changes over a three year period. Agricultural Systems 160, 87-95. 
• Godde, C., Garnett, T., Thornton, P., Ash, A., Herrero, M. (2018) Grazing systems expansion and intensification: Drivers, dynamics, and trade-offs. Global Food Security 16, 93-105. DIO: 10.1016/j.gfs.2017.11.003.
• Frank, S., Beach, R., Havlik, P., Valin, H., Herrero, M., Mosnier, A., Hasegawa, T., Creason, J., Ragnauth, S., Obersteiner, M. (2018) Structural change as a key component for agricultural non-CO2 mitigation efforts. Nature Communications 9, 1-8.
• Ramankutty, N., Mehrabi, Z., Waha, K., Herrero, M., et al. (2018) Trends in Global Agricultural Land Use: Implications for Environmental Health and Food Security. Annual Reviews of Plant Biology 69: 789–815.
• Osgood-Zimmerman, A., Millear, A.I., Stubbs, R.W, Shields, C., Pickering, B.V, Earl, L., Bhatt, S., Brown, A.J. Burstein, R., Cameron, E., Casey, D.C., Deshpande, A., Fullman, N., Gething, P.W. Gibson, H.S., Graetz, N. Henry, N.J.,  Herrero, M., Kinyoki, D.K. Krause, K.L., Letourneau, I.D., Levine, A.J. Liu, P.Y. Longbottom, J., Mayala, B.K., Mosser, J.F., Noor, A.M., Pigott, D.M, Piwoz, E.G., Rao, P., Rawat, R., Reiner Jr., R.C., Smith, D.L., Weiss, D.J., Wiens, K.E., Mokdad, A.H., Lim, S.S., Murray, C.J.L., Kassebaum, N.J., Hay, S.I. (2018) Mapping child growth failure in Africa between 2000 and 2015. Nature 555, 41-47.
• Waha, K., Fritz, S., See, L., Thornton, P. K., van Wijk, M. T., Wichern, J., Herrero, M. (2018)  Agricultural diversification as a key strategy for achieving food security in Africa. Global Change Biology. 24(8), 3390-3400. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14158.
• Sloat, L., Gerber, J., Story, L., Smith, W.K., Herrero, M., Ferreira, L., Godde, C.M., West, P. (2018) Increasing importance of precipitation variability on global livestock grazing lands. Nature Climate Change. 8, 214–218. DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0081-5.
• Boone, R., Conant, R., Sircely, J., Thornton, P. & Herrero, M. (2018) Climate Change Impacts on Selected Global Rangeland Ecosystem Services. Global Change Biology. 24(3), 1382–1393. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13995.
• Henderson, B., Golub, A., Hertel, T., Godde, C., Herrero, M., Cacho, O., Steinfeld, H. & Gerber, P. (2018) The power and pain of market-based carbon policies: a global application to greenhouse gases from ruminant livestock production. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 23 (3): 349–36. DOI: 10.1007/s11027-017-9737-0.

Book Chapters, Reports, Conference Papers and Assorted Publications

• Contributing author to: Searchinger, T., Waite, R., Hanson, C., Ranganathan, J., Dumas, P. and Matthews, E. (2018) Creating a Sustainable Food Future: A Menu of Solutions to Feed Nearly 10 Billion People by 2050. Synthesis Report. World Resources Institute, pp. 96.
• Nelson, G., Bogard, J., Lividini, K., Arsenault, J., Riley, M., Sulser, T., Mason-D’Croz, D., Power, B., Gustafson, D., Herrero M., Wiebe, K., Cooper, K., Remans, R., Rosegrant, M. (2019) Integrating income growth and climate change scenarios to assess the effects on global nutrition security to mid-century. Scenarios Forum 2019, 11-13 May, Denver, CO, USA.
• Mayberry, D., Bartlett, H., Moss, J., Wiedemann, S., Herrero, M. (2018) Greenhouse Gas mitigation potential of the Australian red meat production and processing sectors. Meat and Livestock Australia, North Sydney.
• Herrero, M., Mason-D’Croz, D., Godde, C., Palmer, J., Thornton, P.K., Gill, M. (2018) Livestock, land and the environmental limits of animal source-food consumption. Science Forum 2018, Independent Science and Partnership Council of the CGIAR, Stellenbosch, South Africa. 10-12 October 2018. 
• Sandström, V., Valin, H., Krisztin, T., Havlik, P., Herrero, M., Kastner, T. (2018) The role of trade in the greenhouse gas footprints of EU diets. International Sustainable Production and Consumption Conference. 4-5 October 2018, Manchester, UK.
• Herrero, M. (2018) The role of grasslands in food security and environmental sustainability. The 7th Japan-China-Korea Grasslands Conference. Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan, 8-10 July, 2018. Keynote paper/presentation.
• Leclère D, Obersteiner M, Alkemade R, Almond R, Barrett M, Bunting G, Burgess N D, Butchart S H M, Chaudhary A, Cornell S, De Palma A, DeClerck F A J, Di Fulvio F, Di Marco M, Doelman J C, Durauer M, Ferrier S, Freeman R, Fritz S, Fujimori S, Grooten M, Harfoot M, Harwood T D, Hasegawa T, Havlík P, Hellweg S, Herrero M, Hilbers J P, Hill S L L, Hoskins A J, Humpenöder F, Kram T, Krisztin T, Lotze-Campen H, Mace G M, Matsui T, Meyer C, Nel D, Newbold T, Ohashi H, Popp A, Purvis A, Schipper A M, Schimdt-Traub G, Stehfest E, Strassburg B B N, Tabeau A, Valin H, van Meijl H, van Vuuren D P, van Zeist W-J, Visconti P, Ware C, Watson J E M, Wu W and Young L (2018), Towards pathways bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity trends within the 21 st century, DOI:10.22022/ESM/04-2018.15241, online: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15241.