Fluid Milk

A modeling approach to extend fluid milk shelf-life

The goal of models developed here is to 1) predict microbial spoilage in fluid milk due to raw milk contamination by psychrotolerant spore-formers and post-pasteurization contamination (PPC) by Gram-negative bacteria, 2) identify key quality management practices that influence contamination of fluid milk, and 3) optimize benefit-cost ratio for the existing intervention strategies. Use the link below to access a single web interface for two Monte-Carlo simulation models that predict the spoilage of fluid milk due to psychrotolerant spore-formers and post-pasteurization contamination, respectively.



Relevant Publications

  • Qian, C., S. I. Murphy, T. T. Lott, N. H. Martin, and M. Wiedmann. 2023. Development and deployment of a supply-chain digital tool to predict fluid milk spoilage due to psychrotolerant sporeformers. J. Dairy. Sci. https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2023-23673
  • Lau, S., M. Wiedmann, and A. Adalja. 2023. Economic and environmental analysis of processing plant interventions to reduce fluid milk waste. J. Dairy. Sci. 106(7):4773-4784. https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2022-23019
  • Lau, S., M. Wiedmann, and A. Adalja. 2022. Consumer perceptions of QR code technology for enhanced fluid milk shelf-life information provision in a retail setting. JDS Communications. 3(6):393-397. https://doi.org/10.3168/jdsc.2022-0256
  • Lau, S., Trmcic, A., Martin, N. H., Wiedmann, M., Murphy, S. I. 2022. Development of a Monte Carlo simulation model to predict pasteurized fluid milk spoilage due to post-pasteurization contamination with gram-negative bacteria. J Dairy Sci. , 105(3), 1978-1998. doi: 10.3168/jds.2021-21316
  • Murphy SI, Reichler SJ, Martin NH, Boor KJ, Wiedmann M. 2021. Machine learning and advanced statistical modeling can identify key quality management practices that affect post-pasteurization contamination of fluid milk. J Food Prot. doi: 10.4315/JFP-20-431. 
  • Enayaty-Ahangar, F., Murphy, S. I., Martin, N. H., Wiedmann, M., Ivanek, R. 2021. Optimizing Pasteurized Fluid Milk Shelf-Life Through Microbial Spoilage Reduction. Front. sustain. food syst. 5:1–21. doi:10.3389/fsufs.2021.670029.
  • Buehler, A. J., Martin, N. H., Boor, K. J., Wiedmann, M. 2018. Psychrotolerant spore-former growth characterization for the development of a dairy spoilage predictive model. J. Dairy Sci. 101:6964–6981. doi:10.3168/jds.2018-14501.

Models under development

  • A combined model that can (i) predict spoilage due to both psychrotolerant spore-former and PPC and (ii) account temperature shift during supply chain


The funding for development of predictive models of fluid milk spoilage has been provided by the Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research (FFAR; Award #CA18-SS-0000000206) and by the New York State Milk Promotion Advisory Board (Albany, NY) who funds the Voluntary Shelf-Life Program.