Daniel Mason-D'Croz

Research focus

Daniel Mason-D’Croz has combined cutting edge tools in integrated assessment modeling with participatory anticipatory governance methods to help inform agricultural and food policy. He has contributed to a wide range of global assessments and has participated in various expert panels exploring the opportunities and challenges to transforming food systems. His research has focused on assessing the impact of climate change on the food system, achieving global food security, the challenges of achieving healthier diets, and exploring the potential of novel technologies to transform the food system.

Reference Daniel's Google Scholar or ResarchGate profiles for a full list of publications.

Peer-reviewed publications

2021

• Barrett, Fanzo, Herrero, Mason-D’Croz, et al. (2021) “COVID-19 Pandemic Lessons for Agri-food Systems Innovation”. Environmental Research Letters. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac25b9  
• Godde, Mason-D’Croz, Mayberry, et al. (2021) “Impacts of Climate Change on the Livestock Food Supply Chain, a Review of the Evidence.” Global Food Security, 28: 100488. DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100488.
• Kamarek, Dunston, Enahoro, Godfray, et al. (2021) “Income, preferences, and the future of livestock-derived food demand”. Global Environmental Change, 70:102343. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102343 
• Sulser, T., K.D. Wiebe, S. Dunston, et al. (2021). Climate Change and hunger: Estimating costs of adaptation in the agrifood system. IFPRI Food Policy Report. DOI: 10.2499/9780896294165

2020

• Barrett, Benton, Cooper, et al. (2020). “Bundling Innovations to Transform Agri-Food Systems.” Nature Sustainability, 3(12): 974–76.
• Frija, Chebil, Mottaleb, et al. (2020) Agricultural growth and sex-disaggregated employment in Africa…”, Global Food Security, 24: 100353
• Hasegawa, Fujimori, Havlik, et al. (2020). "Reply to: An appeal to cost undermines food security risks of delayed mitigation". Nature Climate Change, 10(5): 420-421.
• Herrero, Thornton, Mason-D’Croz et al. (2020) Future technologies and food-systems innovation for accelerating progress towards the SDGs. Nature Food, 1(5): 266-272
• Herrero, Thornton, Mason-D’Croz, et al. (2020). “Articulating the Effect of Food Systems Innovation on the SDGs.” The Lancet Planetary Health.
• Hinz, Sulser, Mason-D’Croz et al. (2020) Agricultural Development & Land-Use Change in India: A Scenario Analysis of Trade-Offs Between UN SDGs” Earth’s Future, 8(2)
• Loboguerrero, Thornton, Wadsworth, et al. (2020) “Actions to reconfigure food systems.” Global Food Security, 26: 100432
• Mason-D'Croz, Bogard, Herrero, et al. (2020). "Modelling the global economic consequences of a major African swine fever outbreak in China". Nature Food, 1(4): 221–228. 
• van Zeist, Stehfest, Doelman, et al. (2020) “Are scenario projections overly optimistic on future yield progress”. Global Environmental Change, (64):102120

2019

• Beach, Sulser, Crimmins, et al. (2019) “Climate change and elevated atmospheric CO2 will impact protein, iron and zinc availability…”. The Lancet Planetary Health, 3(7): 307-317
• Enahoro, Mason-D’Croz, et al. (2019) “Investment options for sustainable growth of livestock production in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa”, Global Food Security, 29: 114-121
• Mason-D’Croz, Bogard, et al. (2019) “Gaps between fruit and vegetable production, demand and recommended consumption…” The Lancet Planetary Health, 3(7): 318-329
• Mason-D’Croz, Sulser, et al. (2019) “Agricultural investments and ending hunger in Africa; Modeling potential contributions to SDG 2”. World Development, 116: 38–53.
• Mbow, Rosenzweig, et al. (2019). “Food Security”. Chapter 5 in IPCC Special Report on climate change and land.
• Stehfest, van Zeist, Valin, et al. (2019) “Key determinants of global land-use futures”. Nature Communications, 10(2166): 1–10

2018

• Hasegawa, Fujimori, Havlik, et al. (2018). Risk of increased food insecurity under stringent global climate change mitigation policy. Nature Climate Change, 8: 699-703.
• Nelson, Bogard, Lividini, et al. (2018). “Income Growth and Climate Change Effects on Global Nutrition Security to Mid-Century”. Nature Sustainability, 1(12).
• Rosenzweig, Ruane, Antle, Elliot, et al. (2018) “Coordinating AgMIP data and models across global and regional scales for 1.5 C and 2.0 C assessments”. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A., 376(2119).
• Ruane, Antle, Elliott, Folberth, et al. (2018) Biophysical and economic implications for agriculture of +1.5 and +2.0°C… Climate Research, 76: 17–39.
• Springmann, Clark, Mason-D’Croz, et al. (2018). “Options for keeping the food system within environmental limits”. Nature, 562: 519–525
• Springmann, Mason-D’Croz, Robinson, et al. (2018) “Health-motivated taxes on red and processed meat…” PLOS One, 13(11): e0204139
• Springmann, Wiebe, Mason-D’Croz, et al. (2018). “The health and environmental aspects of sustainable-diet strategies…” Lancet Planetary Health, 2(10) e451-e461.

Book chapters, reports, discussion and conference papers and other publications

2021

• Hendriks, S., A. De Groot Ruiz, M. Herrero Acosta, et al. (2021). A paper from the Scientific Group of the UN Food Systems Summit. The True Cost and True Price of Food. https://sc-fss2021.org/
• Herrero, M., D. Mason-D’Croz, P.K. Thornton et al. (2021). Livestock and sustainable food systems: status, trends, and priority actions. Food Systems Summit Brief. https://sc-fss2021.org
• Mason-D'Croz, D., P. Dixon, M. Rimmer, et al. (2021). “Exploring Potential General Equilibrium Effects of a Transition to Plant-Based Meat Alternatives in the USA.” Presented at AARES 2021 Annual Conference, Feb. 8-12 20201
• Mason-D’Croz, Palmer, van Wijk, Dunston, et al. (2021) Southeast Asian livestock futures: what role for smallholders. Final Report for ACIAR Project LS/2018/107. ACIAR. Canberra, Australia.
• Nong, Mason-D’Croz, Lu, Martinez, and Palmer. (2021). An introduction of GTEM-Food: A baseline calibration with a focus on food. Presented at the 24th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis Jun 24, 2021.
• Rosegrant, Wiebe, Sulser, Mason-D’Croz, and Willenbockel. (2021) “Climate Change and Agricultural Development”. Chapter 19 in Agricultural Development: New Perspectives in a Changing World (eds. Fan, S. and K. Otsuka). Washington DC: IFPRI. DOI: 10.2499/9780896293830_19

2020

• Barrett, Benton, Fanzo, et al. (2020). “Socio-Technical Innovation Bundles for Systems Transformation. Report of the International Expert Panel on Innovations to Build Sustainable, Equitable, Inclusive Food Value Chains.” Cornell U. & Nature Sustainability
• Herrero, Mason-D’Croz, McMillan et al. (2020) Investment decision- making in the livestock sector: country typology. Project Report prepared for Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
• Herrero, Palmer, and Mason-D’Croz (2020) Finding the sweet spots: Trade-offs between productivity increases, structural change and the mitigation potential of dairy systems in Ethiopia. Project Report prepared for Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
• Mason-D'Croz, D., J.R. Bogard, M. Herrero, S. Robinson, T.B. Sulser, K. Wiebe, D. Willenbockel, and H.C.J. Godfray (2020). "Data for: Modelling the global economic consequences of a major African swine fever outbreak in China". Mendeley Data, VX, DOI: 10.17632/zgrngg5hp5
• Mason-D'Croz, Dixon, Rimmer, et al. (2020) Pathways to sustainable beef production and demand in the United States. Project Report prepared for Johns Hopkins University
• Mason-D’Croz, Palmer, Dennis, et al. (2020). “Smallholder farmers in the Asia-Pacific: Past Trends and Possible Future to 2030.” Project report prepared for DFAT
• Mason-D’Croz, Palmer, Herrero, and McMillan (2020) Investment decision making in the livestock sector: Key decisions and metrics. Project Report prepared for Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
• McMillan, Herrero, Palmer, and Mason-D’Croz (2020) Investment decision making in the livestock sector. Stakeholder engagement regarding decision making processes, including actors’ maps. Project Report prepared for Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

2019

• Herrero, Mason-D’Croz, Bogard, and Howden. (2019) “Food Production” Chapter 5 in Lawrence, M. and S. Friel (eds.) Healthy and sustainable food systems (pp. 63-81).
• Herrero, Thornton, Mason-D’Croz, and Palmer (2019) Transforming Food Systems Under a Changing Climate Future technologies and food systems innovation for accelerating progress towards the SDGs: key messages. CCAFS Brief.
• Mason-D’Croz, Bogard, Sulser, et al. (2019). “National projections of fruit and vegetable availability to 2050 under a range of socioeconomic scenarios from the IMPACT Model.” Mendeley Data, V1, DOI: 10.17632/d7m5h5zvw7
• Mason-D'Croz, Herrero, Peou, and Thornton. (2019). Workshop on Transformative Technologies in Agriculture: Notes to participants. CCAFS Report
• Veeger, Mason-D'Croz, Dunston et al. (2019). Crash-testing policies; How scenarios can support climate change policy formulation. CGIAR CCAFS methodological guide
• Wiebe, Sulser, Pacheco, et al. (2019) The palm oil dilemma: Policy tensions between higher productivity, rising demand, and deforestation. IFPRI Policy Brief.

2018

• Fan, Heady, Laborde Debucquet, Mason-D’Croz, et al. (2018). Quantifying the cost and benefits of ending hunger and undernutrition… IFPRI Issue Brief. Washington, DC.
• Herrero, Mason-D’Croz, Godde, et al. (2018) “Livestock, land, and the environmental limits of animal source-food consumption”. Commissioned by ISPC for 2018 CGIAR Science Forum
• Komarek, Robinson, and Mason-D’Croz (2018). The diet problem, nutrient supply, and the cost of diversity applied to livestock feeds. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1780. Washington, DC
• Mason-D’Croz, Robinson, Islam, and Sulser (2018) “A Bayesian methodology for building consistent datasets…” 21th Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Cartagena, Colombia. GTAP Resource #5545.
• Rosegrant, Magalhaes, Valmonte-Santos, and Mason-D’Croz. (2018). Returns to Investment in Reducing Postharvest Food Losses and Increasing Agricultural Productivity Growth. Chpt. 18 in Prioritizing Development: A cost benefit analysis of UN’s SDGs. Cambridge University Press
• Thomas, Loboguerrero, Mason-D’Croz, and Martínez Barón. (2018) An Overview of Methods Used to Study the Impact of Climate Change… IFPRI Discussion Paper 1771.
• Willenbockel, Robinson, Mason-D’Croz, et al. (2018) Dynamic CGE simulations in support of quantitative foresight modeling… IFPRI Discussion Paper 1738.

Outreach and extension focus

Daniel Mason-D’Croz’s research is focused on developing tools and methodologies to support decision makers to develop more robust policies, and is committed to finding participatory methods that can democratize the use and application of these complex tools.

While at IFPRI, he contributed to and led scenario workshops with national stakeholders in Colombia, Russia, Central Asia, and Africa as a part of policy informing exercises. Additionally, he helped to build a community of practice in foresight modeling within the CGIAR and beyond, having developed IFPRI’s current IMPACT model short course. 

He has also been heavily involved in regional future scenarios work with CCAFS. As a part of the first phase of this work he contributed to developing and quantifying regional scenarios to inform climate and food policy in South Asia, Southeast Asia, Eastern Africa, Western Africa, Central America, and the Andes. In the second phase of this project, he coordinated with collaborators at Wageningen and Oxford Universities to develop tools to downscale global and national scenarios to policy relevant scales for food policy in Bangladesh.

Learn more about the CCAFS Futures scenarios project:

• Supporting improved policies and institutions
• Scenario guided policy and investment planning for food- and nutrition-secure futures under climate change